Managing Uncertainty exam study guide Essay

Overseeing Uncertainty test study manage Essay Overseeing Uncertainty test study direct Essay Overseeing Uncertainty Exam Format 4 inquiries †pick 2 1 page for each answer The inquiries will cover: definitions, hypothesis, ideas No stunt questions Use models in answers Pertinent parts: - Origins of Wealth 1 and 6 - Use climb of cash for definitions/models The Cynefin Framework Definitions Fundamental Patterns of Complexity Development and Self-Organization Full scale frameworks that appear because of activities of many (apparently random) specialists Model: Traffic in India/showcase cost Availability Everything is interconnected Significant in light of the fact that anything done by an operators could influence everything else in the framework Model: changes the temperature of one sea will inevitably influence each of the 7. Theft diminished because of modest work in china. Stuff wasn’t worth taking any longer Non-Linearity Impact isn't straightforwardly corresponding to the reason Model: Criticism Effects Negative criticism impacts balance the framework, implying that there is no change. Positive criticism impacts enhance the change, think snowball impact. (Viral promoting) Model: Negative: snowball moving down a frigid slope. Positive: Media’s impact on Lehman Tumult Unlimited components in the framework at the hour of its creation, which could prompt gigantic variances in the last developing conditions Model: butterfly impact Tipping Point Where a framework changes from one condition (of being) to another. (The straw that crushed the camel’s spirit) Model: Downfall of Lehman Brothers Way Dependency Past activities make structures, which lead to the advancement of requirements in the framework. History matters. There is consistently setting. You never start from zero. Model: re-trying or fabricating another underground line - Human Cognition Immaculate Rationality: Spock Surrounding Bias Setting the data is yielded (can be utilized to impact coming about resolutions). Representativeness Reaching huge determinations from extremely little/one-sided tests. (Doesn't have full data) Accessibility Bias Putting together ends with respect to effectively available data Trouble making a decision about hazard Miss-evaluating Threats